A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
